Brexit Q&A – February 2019

After the Prime Minister’s deal falls, she survives a no confidence vote. But what happens next?

Brexit: Theresa May’s deal is voted down in historic Commons defeat.

Theresa May survives vote, but Britain remains in Brexit deadlock.

Following the vote, the Prime Minister set about talking to the opposition party leaders and relevant committee chairs in a bid to try to break the Parliamentary deadlock and find a compromise deal. Jeremy Corbyn refuses to meet with Theresa May unless she rules out no deal Brexit. Find out more.  

What is the Brexit Plan B?
The government was expecting to have 21 days to produce a Plan B for Brexit if the Prime Minister’s deal was voted down. However, MPs backed calls for Parliament to respond within three working days.

What Comes Next for Brexit: U.K. Parliament to Vote on ‘Plan B’.

What are the main possible Brexit outcomes?

  1. No deal If no alternatives can be agreed, the default position would be a no deal Brexit.

    Likelihood: Few MPs positively support the UK leaving the EU with no formal deal but this is the default if all else fails.
     
  2. Second vote on the Prime Minister’s deal This approach could involve making some minor adjustments to the deal, which might include making requests to the EU which may or may not be granted.

    Likelihood: The Prime Minister would have to convince a very large number of sceptical MPs across the House that her deal is the right one. Pro-Brexit MPs might be encouraged to support the deal if they can be persuaded that there is no alternative, while pro-Remain MPs might be deterred by the fear of no deal.
     
  3. Major renegotiation of Brexit deal The government could initiate a major renegotiation of the existing Brexit deal which would involve far more than small adjustments. A significant rethink could require an extension of Article 50 to complete.

    Likelihood: The Prime Minister has repeatedly stated that there will be no extension of the Article 50 deadline. It would also involve the EU’s willingness to reopen negotiations. The Prime Minister might also have to cross some of her own ‘red lines’.
     
  4. A second referendum on EU membership The government could opt to hold another referendum. This would also require an extension to Article 50 because it is already too late to hold a referendum before 29 March. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 – they cannot happen automatically.

    Likelihood: There would need to be a Parliamentary majority for a second referendum.

Sourced from London Business Matters.